AI demand is "very, very strong," and ASML is studying the production of more than 110 EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography) systems in 2028.

On one side, AI giants collectively called for "slowing down frontier AI," and chip stocks fell sharply in response; on the other side, the expansion list of lithography giant ASML is accelerating. After meeting with ASML Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen on September 14, JPMorgan analysts concluded: AI demand is "very, very strong," and ASML is studying the production of more than 110 EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography) systems in 2028.

ASML already gave a clear timetable at its earnings call in July this year: Low-NA (numerical aperture) EUV capacity of about 65 units in 2026, an increase of about 30% in 2027 with output of at least 80 units, and another assessment of a roughly 30% increase in 2028. Now JPMorgan is directly pointing its 2028 target to "more than 110 units," raising its own 2027 shipment estimate to 90 units, while indicating that the market's consensus expectations for ASML's 2027 and 2028 earnings are "clearly too low," leaving substantial room for upward revision. Capacity for 2027 is already "almost sold out." JPMorgan quoted management as saying that most new orders have delivery dates scheduled into 2028.

"Very, very strong" demand — where does it come from?
First, Intel. JPMorgan expects Intel to "become an important customer again" in 2027. As the earliest adopter of High-NA EUV, Intel has already introduced High-NA EUV into some Panther Lake (Core Ultra Series 3) products using the 18A process and entered mass production. Second, the Terafab project being built by Musk, listed as a new customer "under development." Third, Chinese memory manufacturers. JPMorgan expects ASML's sales to Chinese memory customers in 2027 to be "relatively strong." Another footnote to the strength of demand is "usage intensity" — the number of EUV exposures required per chip in this round of processes is rising, directly driving up demand per machine.
The real bottleneck is not the supply chain, but "assembly speed"
JPMorgan clearly pointed out that the limiting factor for ASML's expansion is not the supply chain, but the assembly speed of EUV. Dassen said the company is compressing the scanner production cycle from about 22 weeks to 15 to 16 weeks. JPMorgan also listed four paths to increase output "without building new cleanrooms": compressing the manufacturing cycle in the second half of 2027, converting R&D cleanrooms to production, shifting some capacity to Low-NA before High-NA demand ramps up, and restarting the "fast delivery" mechanism used during the pandemic.

Even so, the optical system remains a hard constraint. ASML's annual report shows that its equipment output is constrained by its sole supplier of optical components, Carl Zeiss SMT. Zeiss is adding about 25,000 square meters of production space in Oberkochen, Germany, with the first building delivered in July 2026; ASML is supporting its expansion with about 1.9 billion euros in loans and nearly 1.2 billion euros in advance payments. Zeiss says capacity is sufficient and has planned its technology roadmap with ASML through 2040.

High-NA relay race: Intel leads, TSMC is the most conservative
In next-generation High-NA EUV, customer rhythms have already diverged: Intel is earliest, already using it in 18A mass production; Samsung and SK Hynix plan to adopt it in 2028; Micron has placed orders but has not given a mass production timetable; TSMC is the most conservative, currently planning to adopt High-NA starting in 2030. ASML disclosed that as of mid-2026, global High-NA systems had cumulatively exposed more than 1.35 million wafers, and the EXE:5200B achieved a throughput of 135 wafers per hour upon acceptance, up about 35% from 100 wafers per hour for the previous generation EXE:5000; overall tool availability has risen to 84%, with plans to reach 90% in the fourth quarter of 2026. JPMorgan expects High-NA adoption to begin in 2028 and gradually scale over the next decade.

Cooling-down calls vs. expansion list
The dramatic scene is this: on September 12, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei publicly called on the industry to slow the improvement of frontier AI capabilities, OpenAI's Altman expressed support, and xAI's Musk responded that "Dario is right." The news triggered a global chip stock selloff on September 14, with ASML's Amsterdam shares falling 5.2% that day.
But the order book tells another story: sold out in 2027, fully booked in 2028, and full-year revenue guidance raised to 43 billion to 45 billion euros (ASML raised its full-year 2026 guidance in its second-quarter 2026 earnings report). ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet even said outright that he does not believe the market has reached the end of the AI boom. The divergence between short-term stock price fluctuations and long-term capital expenditure lists is precisely the most noteworthy signal in the current semiconductor equipment industry — the real risk may not be "AI cooling down," but whether the pace of expansion can keep up with demand.

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