Shake the global photovoltaic industry.

On April 21, the US Department of Commerce announced the final ruling on the "anti-dumping and countervailing duty" tariffs on imported photovoltaic cells and modules from four Southeast Asian countries (Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia). Among the publicly announced final tax rates, the most exaggerated one is Cambodia. Some Cambodian enterprises were ruled to have countervailing duties of up to 3,403.96%!

Compared with the preliminary ruling result at the end of 2024 and the revision in February this year, the final ruling tax rate has soared again. Specifically:

Cambodia: The anti-dumping duty for most photovoltaic enterprises in the country was determined to be 117.18%, and the countervailing duty was determined to be 534.67%, with a total tax rate as high as 651.85%, doubling compared to the initial ruling result. The total tax rate of four enterprises, including Hounen Solar and Solar Long PV Tech, soared to 3,521.14% because they failed to cooperate with the "anti-dumping and countervailing duty" investigation in the United States.

Thailand: The final tax rate for most enterprises is 375.19%, but the total tax rate for two enterprises is as high as 972.23%.

Vietnam is currently the Southeast Asian country with the largest number of photovoltaic enterprises, the largest photovoltaic production capacity and the highest export volume to the United States. The final tariff rate faced by the country's photovoltaic production capacity ranges from 120.69% to 813.92%.

Malaysia: The final ruling tax rate is relatively low, ranging from 14.64% to 250.04%. Most enterprises, including local companies of international leaders such as Hanwha Q-Cells and JinkoSolar, face a total tax rate lower than 50%.

It is learned that the above-mentioned final tax rate will not be finally heard and enter the implementation process until around May 20 local time after the US International Trade Commission's hearing and voting.

The news sent shockwaves through the global photovoltaic industry.

Some analyses point out that the photovoltaic trade barriers launched by the United States against four Southeast Asian countries this time essentially continue the attempt to curb the development of China's photovoltaic industry.

After years of continuous pressure from "anti-dumping and countervailing duties", Section 301 and 201 tariffs, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises have become de-sensitive to tariffs in their exports to the United States. They mainly achieve indirect exports to the United States through overseas bases in Southeast Asia and other regions. Although the "tariff war" has caused the overseas production capacity costs of Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers to rise and further squeeze their profits, compared with the domestic manufacturing costs in the United States, they may still have a relative advantage.

In contrast, the photovoltaic industry in the United States shows a structural feature of being "top-heavy". Although the top position in the global photovoltaic market value was taken by the US photovoltaic module enterprise First Solar (with a market value of 21 billion US dollars on May 21, 2024), the domestic industrial chain in the United States is concentrated in the downstream, mainly consisting of modules and photovoltaic installations. The upstream and midstream industries are still under construction, and raw materials are mainly imported from Southeast Asian countries.

From the perspective of market performance, although the installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the United States has maintained positive growth, its growth rate has significantly lagged behind that of major markets in Asia and Europe. The root cause lies in the fact that, on the one hand, the domestic industries in the United States have a relatively high degree of dependence on foreign countries, but the localization policy has hindered the import of raw materials for products, and some demands have been suppressed. On the other hand, although the policy support is considerable, it still takes time for the actual production capacity to be implemented.

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